ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is witnessing a concerning spike in HIV infections, with over 10000 new HIV cases confirmed in the first nine months of 2025, putting the country on course to record its highest-ever annual HIV total, health officials warned on Wednesday. Authorities estimate that the figure could exceed 14,000 cases by year’s end, surpassing the 13,001 infections reported in 2024.
According to the federal health ministry, 6,459 HIV cases had already been reported by June, but the number surged sharply between July and September due to increased screenings during surgeries, visa applications, and emergency medical procedures. Officials noted that the majority of new detections were incidental, discovered only through mandatory HIV testing for travelers, pre-surgical checkups, or when doctors suspected infection.
Despite the alarming rise, Pakistan still lacks national legislation mandating HIV screening for high-risk groups, including sex workers, deported migrants, and intravenous drug users — leaving thousands undiagnosed and untreated, contributing to ongoing transmission.
UNAIDS Predicts Up to 40,000 New Infections by Year-End
New modeling by UNAIDS, WHO, and UNICEF projects that up to 40,000 people in Pakistan could contract HIV by the end of 2025. However, due to limited surveillance systems and insufficient access to diagnostic facilities, a majority of infections may remain undiagnosed or untreated.
Recent outbreaks in Mirpurkhas and Taunsa, where dozens of children were infected through syringe reuse and unsafe medical practices, underscore the virus’s shift beyond “high-risk” populations — now spreading within families, including mothers and infants.
Rising Cases Among Men, Transgender Persons, and Sex Workers
Health experts report a rapid increase in infections among men who have sex with men (MSM), driven by chemsex — sexual activity under the influence of methamphetamine — leading to unprotected encounters. This trend, they say, is also fueling transmission among transgender persons and female sex workers, many of whom are unaware of their HIV status and continue working without preventive measures.
Deported Workers Emerging as a Major Infection Source
Officials also highlight deported Pakistani workers returning from Gulf countries and Europe as another growing source of HIV transmission. Around 50,000 deportees return annually, and even if 5% are HIV-positive, roughly 2,500 infected individuals re-enter the country each year — often without health screening or referral to HIV treatment centres.
Some officials allege that NGOs working with migrant populations discourage screening at airports in the name of protecting rights, creating significant gaps in public health surveillance.
Pakistan’s HIV Treatment and Reporting Gaps
Official estimates suggest 369,593 people in Pakistan are currently living with HIV, yet only 78,734 are registered with treatment centres, and about 55,690 are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, programme insiders claim these figures are inflated to satisfy international donors, estimating that fewer than 20,000 patients are actually adhering to treatment.
Public health experts warn that Pakistan’s HIV response remains reactive, heavily reliant on laboratory tests ordered for foreign travel or surgical clearance. Without mandatory screening policies, infection control enforcement, and a data-driven national HIV strategy, experts caution that Pakistan risks a silent, uncontrolled epidemic — with most infections detected only by chance, not through systematic health measures.
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