ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — When Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Kabul in April to meet his Afghan counterpart in the Taliban-led government, Amir Khan Muttaqi, analysts viewed the trip as an effort to reset strained ties between the two uneasy neighbors.
Follow-up meetings in May and August, facilitated by China, strengthened hopes of reconciliation. However, renewed deadly border clashes over the weekend have shattered that fragile progress. According to Islamabad, over 200 Taliban fighters were killed, while the Taliban claimed 58 Pakistani soldiers lost their lives — a stark reminder of how volatile relations remain.
Pakistan, which faces a sharp rise in militant attacks — particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where dozens of soldiers have died — accuses the Taliban of harboring armed groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), responsible for cross-border assaults.
The Taliban deny these allegations. Yet, after explosions and gunfire echoed across Kabul on Thursday night, the Taliban accused Islamabad of launching strikes in the Afghan capital and an eastern province, vowing to retaliate.
Fighting reignited on Saturday night, leaving at least 23 Pakistani soldiers dead and 29 wounded, as Pakistan claimed to have captured more than 21 Taliban posts inside Afghan territory. Afghan officials have not confirmed the Taliban’s casualties. On Tuesday night, hostilities flared again when Islamabad reported “unprovoked” attacks near Kurram district, destroying several “Afghan tanks.”
Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed Pakistani shelling with “light and heavy weapons,” stating that 12 civilians were killed and over 100 injured, prompting “retaliatory action.”
A “New Normal” in Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations
The latest clashes have drawn comparisons to Pakistan’s tense standoff with India earlier this year, after New Delhi accused Islamabad of involvement in an attack that killed 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir. Much like Pakistan’s accusations against the Taliban, India has long claimed Islamabad supports “terrorist” groups operating from its soil — charges Pakistan rejects.
Now, analysts suggest Pakistan is adopting a “new normal” strategy with the Taliban — signaling that future cross-border attacks could prompt direct military retaliation inside Afghanistan, mirroring India’s 2025 response strategy against Pakistan.
Though fighting has subsided for now, experts warn that tensions will likely persist, with diplomacy struggling to produce a lasting breakthrough.
The Trigger: Pakistan Taliban (TTP) Escalation
Among the militant factions operating from Afghanistan, Pakistan views the TTP as the most dangerous. Formed in 2007 during the U.S.-led “War on Terror,” the TTP has waged a relentless insurgency to impose strict Islamic law, demand prisoner releases, and reverse the merger of Pakistan’s tribal areas with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
While ideologically aligned, the TTP operates independently of Afghanistan’s Taliban. Pakistan, however, blames Kabul for allowing the TTP, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and ISIL-K (ISIS-K) to operate freely on Afghan soil.
Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, TTP attacks have surged dramatically. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project, the TTP carried out at least 600 attacks or clashes in the past year, surpassing 2024 figures.
In recent weeks alone, over two dozen Pakistani soldiers, including senior officers, have been killed — the latest on October 8.
China and Regional Players Step In
Regional powers — China, Iran, and Russia — have urged the Taliban to curb militancy emanating from Afghanistan. The call was renewed during the Moscow Format Consultations in early October, attended by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.
Analysts believe that diplomatic engagement may soon resume. Abdul Basit, a researcher at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said:
“It’s plausible that Islamabad and Kabul will meet in a third country to restart dialogue. But tensions will continue to fluctuate — we cannot rule out another round of hostilities.”
Former Pakistani ambassador Seema Ilahi Baloch echoed the sentiment, saying Islamabad has “so far failed to convince the Taliban” to stop attacks from Afghan soil.
“Both sides must realize that such conflicts undermine bilateral cooperation and regional stability,” she added. “China, with its influence in both capitals, could play a key role in restoring diplomatic trust.”
